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UN PUBLISHES FIRST COUNTRY-LEVEL STUDIES OF POTENTIAL DEMOGRAPHIC IMPACT OF AFRICAN AIDS PANDEMIC


POP/541
31 May 1994


NEW YORK, 27 May (Population Division) -- The recently issued United Nations study, entitled AIDS and the Demography of Africa, shows a devastating toll from AIDS, with respect to population loss and mortality. However, it also clearly shows that, in spite of the death toll, population growth rates will remain high and positive for each of the countries.

The Population Division of the Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis biennially prepares the official United Nations population estimates and projections for all countries of the world.
Those biennial revisions provide the standard and consistent set of population figures that are used throughout the United Nations system as the basis for activities requiring population information as an input. For the first time, the most recent revision incorporates the potential demographic impact of AIDS for 15 countries of sub-Saharan Africa: Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Central African Republic, Congo, Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, United Republic of Tanzania, Uganda, Zaire, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

Because of the AIDS pandemic, 9 million additional deaths are projected in the 15 countries by the year 2005. Of those, four countries will account for 61 per cent of the additional deaths: Uganda, 1.8 million; Zaire, 1.4 million; the United Republic of Tanzania, 1.3 million; and Zambia, 1.1 million.

In the absence of AIDS, rapid increases in average length of life were projected through 2005 in each of the 15 countries. Because of the epidemic, however, stagnation and even decreases in average length of life are now expected. From 2000 to 2005, average life expectancy at birth will measure 51.2 years, which is 6.5 years lower than its expected value in the absence of AIDS. The impact of the epidemic on average life-span will be even more acute in the four highest seroprevalence countries. In Uganda, for instance, life expectancy at birth will measure 42.9 years between 2000 and 2005, 11.1 years lower than its expected value in the absence of AIDS. Even more alarming, the average life-span in 2000-2005 will be 4.5 years lower than its recorded value in 1975-1980. A similar trend is also observed in Zambia.

Those numbers show that, unlike the experience of the recent past, mortality is increasing in sub-Saharan Africa. Moreover, the largest mortality impacts are in otherwise relatively robust years of life, so that a person in the prime working and family-care years is more likely to die.
Those factors have enormous potential to cause economic and social strain and change.

Because AIDS deaths are occurring disproportionately to those in the most economically productive years of life, the size and quality of the labour forces (and resultant productivity levels) of vital industries will be impacted. The rural agricultural sector may also be affected, further limiting food supplies on a continent beset by chronic food and caloric shortages.

High infection rates for both women and men in the middle age range suggests that mortality due to AIDS will impact on patterns of caregiving for both children and the elderly. While families have traditionally provided care for large numbers of extended family members in African societies, the nature of the AIDS epidemic may severely test the conventional practices. Not only will family caregivers be required to care for potentially stigmatized HIV-infected adults and their dependants, they may also be compelled to replace the infected patient's income-generating activities. Furthermore, because HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa is spread both between partners and to children, potential caregivers (spouse, other wives in a polygamous household, older children) may also be seropositive.

In spite of the devastating death toll and the resultant social impacts induced by the AIDS epidemic, substantial increases in the population totals are projected for the 15 countries. The population size of the aggregate 15 countries is projected to more than double, from 138.4 million persons in 1980 to 297.9 million in 2005. None the less, the population in 2005 will be nearly 12.4 million (or 4.0 per cent) less than would be expected in the absence of AIDS. Even in the four highest seroprevalence countries, the population will more than double between 1980 and 2005, resulting from the relative importance of fertility as a component of population change. Despite AIDS, the 15-country aggregate is projected to double in size in only 22.3 years, compared to a doubling time of 50 to 55 years for the world as a whole.

Note: AIDS and the Demography of Africa (Sales No. E.94.XIII.11), at $30 per copy, may be obtained from the Sales Section, United Nations, New York or Geneva; through major booksellers throughout the world; or by writing to the Director, Population Division, Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis, United Nations, New York, NY 10017, United States.


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